Council on Geostrategy – On 13th October 2025, the container vessel Istanbul Bridge pulled into Felixstowe, the United Kingdom’s (UK) principal container hub, loaded with nearly 5,000 containers of Chinese goods. On the face of it, the arrival would appear unremarkable; just one among thousands of ships arriving in British ports each year from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Yet, the voyage marked a meaningful shift: rather than following traditional trade lanes, Istanbul Bridge had traversed the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Skirting the Arctic coast of Russia, this is an emerging corridor that promises to change global shipping and trade.

The Strategist – The most dangerous assumption in current contingency planning is that any war, even a regional war in Asia involving the United States, would be short. Four interacting forces would make high-intensity regional conflicts hard to terminate: regime legitimacy pressures, alliance dynamics, operational stalemate and nuclear escalation limits. Together they create a protraction trap. This means that strategies for deterrence should prioritise the ability to sustain and manage a conflict that lasts for many months, at least. The outcome of such a conflict may depend less on who wins the opening battle than on who has greater political, military and economic endurance. One side may seek rapid victory, but the US and its allies should plan to sustain the fight.